Iran ceasefire's end drives up oil prices and uncertainty
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The end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is driving oil prices higher and fueling uncertainty over future energy prices.
On Tuesday and again Wednesday, the U.S. said it was striking Iran in retaliation for attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, declared that the ceasefire that ended months of conflict was “over” and said that negotiating with Iran was a “waste of time.”
By Wednesday evening, the price of crude oil had jumped significantly higher than where it was at the start of the week. U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading at about $75 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent Crude was trading at $79, up from about $69 and $72, respectively, on Monday.
While these prices are significantly higher than they have been in recent days, they’re still well below peaks seen at the height of the war, when they neared $120 per barrel.
That’s because traders are waiting to see what actually happens next.
Robert Weiner, professor of international business at George Washington University, said that the market is pricing in “a slightly increased chance of problems in exporting oil” but added that he wouldn’t be surprised “if tomorrow or the next day there’s more news that lessens the effects of this.”
Over the next few days, prices are expected to “continue to creep up,” said Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
But, he added, whether or not prices climb dramatically will depend on whether shipments are able to make it through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping chokepoint off Iran’s coast.
In the meantime, Medlock said he expects to see a “risk premium” priced into oil.
During the war, Iran’s closure of the strait created a supply crunch that drove prices higher. The recent ceasefire agreement said that Iran would open up the waterway for oil shipments.
It also included a lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, a move that has been reversed amid the latest back-and-forth.
Medlock also noted that the recent strikes have been relatively low-level, but that an escalation of the conflict could send prices even higher.
He described the strikes on Iranian boats as “very targeted.”
“They’re not civilian infrastructure, they’re not even energy infrastructure. It’s really stuff that allows the U.S. … to continue to escort traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and give assurances to shippers that the ability for Iran to actually strike ships as they move through the strait is severely diminished,” he said.
“Now, if the Iranian response is to radically escalate, and then the U.S. also radically escalates by expanding strikes beyond just that type of infrastructure, that’s when traffic could shut down and price could go way up,” Medlock added.
Other experts also said that oil prices, while up, had not risen dramatically on Tuesday and early Wednesday because Trump’s comments may be perceived as a negotiating tactic rather than an actual declaration that talks would cease.
“The market has been used to this rhetoric over the past several months,” said Vincent Piazza, Bloomberg Intelligence senior equity analyst.
“I see this as more rhetoric in order to gain leverage to get a deal,” Piazza added, saying he’s “optimistic.”
Meanwhile, Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, noted that during the course of the conflict with Iran, Trump has been effective at talking down the price of oil.
“If anything, there’s a geopolitical discount because nobody sees safety in being long when the president can say something and send it down $5 in a heartbeat,” he said, referring to the price of oil.
Meanwhile, prior to the latest escalation, gasoline prices had been trending downward, as they slowly adjusted following oil’s descent to near prewar prices.
However, if oil rises, the price of gas could follow it.
On Wednesday, the national average gasoline price was about $3.80 per gallon, up nearly a cent from Tuesday. This is still well above where prices were before the start of the war, when the nation averaged under $3, but significantly below the conflict high of around $4.50.
Kloza said he expects “modest increases” in gas prices.
If the escalation conflict sends gas prices back up, that could spell trouble for Republicans in this year’s midterm elections.
“Energy prices have been higher for months now, and now are on the rise again. All of this makes it tougher for Republicans on the ballot to talk about what voters are saying is most important to them — lowering prices,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye in an email.
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Read the full story at The Hill ↗
Following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the U.S. conducted military strikes against Iranian assets on Tuesday and Wednesday in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the ceasefire was over and characterized negotiations as unproductive. Crude oil prices responded by rising approximately $6–7 per barrel within two days, though they remain significantly below wartime peaks. Analysts view current price movements as modest, reflecting market uncertainty rather than panic. The trajectory of prices depends largely on whether shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz continues uninterrupted. Recent U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure rather than civilian or energy facilities. Gasoline prices have ticked upward and may continue rising if oil volatility persists.
Read the full story at The Hill ↗
Skip to content
The end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is driving oil prices higher and fueling uncertainty over future energy prices.
On Tuesday and again Wednesday, the U.S. said it was striking Iran in retaliation for attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, declared that the ceasefire that ended months of conflict was “over” and said that negotiating with Iran was a “waste of time.”
By Wednesday evening, the price of crude oil had jumped significantly higher than where it was at the start of the week. U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading at about $75 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent Crude was trading at $79, up from about $69 and $72, respectively, on Monday.
While these prices are significantly higher than they have been in recent days, they’re still well below peaks seen at the height of the war, when they neared $120 per barrel.
That’s because traders are waiting to see what actually happens next.
Robert Weiner, professor of international business at George Washington University, said that the market is pricing in “a slightly increased chance of problems in exporting oil” but added that he wouldn’t be surprised “if tomorrow or the next day there’s more news that lessens the effects of this.”
Over the next few days, prices are expected to “continue to creep up,” said Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
But, he added, whether or not prices climb dramatically will depend on whether shipments are able to make it through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping chokepoint off Iran’s coast.
In the meantime, Medlock said he expects to see a “risk premium” priced into oil.
During the war, Iran’s closure of the strait created a supply crunch that drove prices higher. The recent ceasefire agreement said that Iran would open up the waterway for oil shipments.
It also included a lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, a move that has been reversed amid the latest back-and-forth.
Medlock also noted that the recent strikes have been relatively low-level, but that an escalation of the conflict could send prices even higher.
He described the strikes on Iranian boats as “very targeted.”
“They’re not civilian infrastructure, they’re not even energy infrastructure. It’s really stuff that allows the U.S. … to continue to escort traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and give assurances to shippers that the ability for Iran to actually strike ships as they move through the strait is severely diminished,” he said.
“Now, if the Iranian response is to radically escalate, and then the U.S. also radically escalates by expanding strikes beyond just that type of infrastructure, that’s when traffic could shut down and price could go way up,” Medlock added.
Other experts also said that oil prices, while up, had not risen dramatically on Tuesday and early Wednesday because Trump’s comments may be perceived as a negotiating tactic rather than an actual declaration that talks would cease.
“The market has been used to this rhetoric over the past several months,” said Vincent Piazza, Bloomberg Intelligence senior equity analyst.
“I see this as more rhetoric in order to gain leverage to get a deal,” Piazza added, saying he’s “optimistic.”
Meanwhile, Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, noted that during the course of the conflict with Iran, Trump has been effective at talking down the price of oil.
“If anything, there’s a geopolitical discount because nobody sees safety in being long when the president can say something and send it down $5 in a heartbeat,” he said, referring to the price of oil.
Meanwhile, prior to the latest escalation, gasoline prices had been trending downward, as they slowly adjusted following oil’s descent to near prewar prices.
However, if oil rises, the price of gas could follow it.
On Wednesday, the national average gasoline price was about $3.80 per gallon, up nearly a cent from Tuesday. This is still well above where prices were before the start of the war, when the nation averaged under $3, but significantly below the conflict high of around $4.50.
Kloza said he expects “modest increases” in gas prices.
If the escalation conflict sends gas prices back up, that could spell trouble for Republicans in this year’s midterm elections.
“Energy prices have been higher for months now, and now are on the rise again. All of this makes it tougher for Republicans on the ballot to talk about what voters are saying is most important to them — lowering prices,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye in an email.
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Read the full story at The Hill ↗
The U.S. conducted strikes against Iran on Tuesday and Wednesday in retaliation for attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz President Trump declared the ceasefire over and said negotiating with Iran was a waste of time WTI Crude rose from ~$69/barrel on Monday to ~$75/barrel by Wednesday; Brent Crude rose from ~$72 to ~$79 These current prices are well below the ~$120/barrel peaks reached during the height of the conflict The ceasefire agreement included opening the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments and lifting U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, both of which have been reversed The market is pricing in a slightly increased chance of oil export problems Oil prices are expected to continue creeping up over the next few days Dramatic price increases would depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes disrupted Recent strikes have been relatively low-level and targeted at military infrastructure that supports U.S. escort operations Trump's rhetoric may be perceived as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive end to talks Trump has previously been effective at talking down oil prices National average gasoline was ~$3.80/gallon on Wednesday, up nearly a cent from Tuesday Gasoline prices could rise further if oil prices surge, creating political challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections
Read the full story at The Hill ↗
- The U.S. and Iran ceasefire has ended following U.S. strikes on Iranian assets in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships
- Crude oil prices rose from ~$69–72/barrel on Monday to ~$75–79/barrel by Wednesday, driven by uncertainty about future energy supplies
- Market analysts expect modest further price increases but note that escalation remains limited; dramatic price spikes would require major disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
- Gasoline prices have begun rising in response and could climb further if oil prices surge, with potential political implications for the upcoming midterm elections