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Trump’s escalating attacks on Iran pose risks at home

World · 2 min · 3h ago · The Hill
Trump’s escalating attacks on Iran pose risks at home
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In today’s issue:

▪ Platner drops Senate candidacy

▪ Trump’s promises at NATO summit

▪ Kentucky governor requests McConnell update

▪ ObamaCare hikes give fuel to Democrats

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The latest rounds of U.S. attacks on Iran are sending President Trump back into perilous territory four months out from the midterms.

Trump ordered strikes on two consecutive days against Iran after it struck multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz, throwing the future of a fragile ceasefire into serious doubt. He signaled early Wednesday that he was ready to walk away from the talks entirely, calling them a “waste of time” and referring to Iran as “liars.”

The breakdown puts Trump back in a familiar position, threatening to “finish the job” against Iran but facing enormous economic, political and military risks if he returns to a full-blown war.

“I got to know them, and I’m not sure I want to make a deal with them. We can play games, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal. Let’s just finish the job,” Trump said at a press conference Wednesday before leaving the NATO summit in Turkey.

“I think anything that happens is going to be over very quickly,” he added.

Trump said the U.S. could inflict maximum pain on Iran by going after bridges, electric infrastructure and water desalination plants, as well as seizing Kharg Island, a key hub of its oil export industry.

However, any major operations would further deplete already dwindling weapons stockpiles, put a target on America’s Gulf allies and roil global energy markets — thrusting Trump back into a similar position to where he was in the spring.

“The war started off unpopular, and that hasn’t really changed,” said Alex Rossell Hayes, the lead data scientist for YouGov. “It’s continued to be pretty substantially unpopular.”

Peace talks were already on hold this week as Iran holds funeral ceremonies for its assassinated former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Continued tensions over who controls the Strait of Hormuz led to the tit-for-tat strikes over the past 36 hours, with the U.S. focusing its strikes on Iran’s coast and Iran responding with strikes on U.S. military targets in the Gulf.

The apparent end to the ceasefire has already sent oil prices back up and could cause them to spike even more in the coming days, The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports. Experts told her the price of crude oil is still well below its wartime peak as traders are waiting to see what happens next.

Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Frazin the strikes are “very targeted” and not currently attacking civilian or energy infrastructure.

“Now, if the Iranian response is to radically escalate, and then the U.S. also radically escalates by expanding strikes beyond just that type of infrastructure, that’s when traffic could shut down and price could go way up,” he said.

Oil and gas prices have been considerably lower in recent weeks with the ceasefire in place, but a prolonged closure of the strait could spell trouble for Republicans.

Democrats have been politically riding high since the war started, growing their lead in the generic congressional ballot to as high as nearly 8 points in the Decision Desk HQ polling average. The growing margin coincided with the cost of regular gas reaching $4.50 per gallon, the highest level in a few years, according to AAA.

Hayes said the economic impact of the war has been the key link between how the conflict has been playing out and how people are feeling about Trump. In the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll taken shortly after the memorandum of understanding was reached, 52 percent of respondents said the war has not been worth it.

At the same time, nearly two thirds said they didn’t think the agreement was likely to lead to a lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran.

Pollsters also found nearly 70 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and rising prices, including a majority who strongly disapprove.

As gas prices have generally been falling for the past few weeks, Democrats have seen a slight narrowing in their generic ballot lead. Where that number stands heading into the midterms may depend largely on Trump’s next moves in Iran.

“It’s all very dependent on how it would affect the economy, because we know from polling that very few voters are really pushed by foreign policy, but voters are very strongly pushed by the state of the economy,” Hayes said.

▪ The Hill: Renewed war threatens to derail congressional agenda.

▪ The Hill: The Memo: Trump’s tough talk raises big question.

The U.S. and Iran are now back to trading strikes in the Middle East. Trump said on the global stage at Wednesday’s NATO summit in Turkey he thinks the ceasefire is “over.” I asked Mark Esper, the former Defense secretary in Trump’s first administration, where he thinks things stand.

“I don’t think the MOU is dead, and it’s hard to say that the ceasefire was ever really alive. There were so many skirmishes over the past few weeks, and I always started to describe it as really a suspension of major hostilities,” Esper told me.

Esper also said he thinks Trump’s hand will be “freer after the election for sure, and the Iranians know that.” There’s roughly 40 days left of the first 60-day Memorandum of Understanding time frame. However, a more significant number could actually be 117 days until the midterms.

By the way, if you have questions about Iran, or anything else involving government, email me at viewersvoice@newsnationnow.com. Tonight, we will be putting your questions to Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) in our Viewer’s Voice segment.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks during a primary election night watch party after winning the Democratic nomination Tuesday, June 9, 2026, in Blue Hill, Maine. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

TAPPING OUT: Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner exited the race Wednesday, days after most prominent Democrats abandoned his campaign over allegations of sexual assault against him.

Platner maintained his innocence in a lengthy video statement posted online addressed to his supporters, alleging the accusations were being publicized to force him out of the race ahead of a Monday deadline. But he acknowledged that his candidacy would struggle to have any path forward.

“We believe that for the movement to continue it can’t be me, and for that reason, we are suspending campaign operations,” Platner told supporters. “This is incredibly difficult, because I know that some will think it’s an admission of guilt, and it most certainly is not.”

His decision will kick off an abbreviated process for the Maine Democratic Party to name his replacement. Under state law, the party can choose another candidate as long as Platner formally withdraws by Monday.

The party will have until July 27, just more than two weeks, to name a new nominee. Preparations have already started taking place, as the state party said it plans to hold a nominating convention.

Several prominent potential contenders have already either thrown their hats in the ring or expressed interest in seeking the nomination, including former state Senate President Troy Jackson, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah.

All three received statewide attention with unsuccessful bids for governor this year, but the field to replace Platner may end up much larger.

Platner’s withdrawal ended a whirlwind 48 hours for the candidate, following a Politico report in which a woman he formerly dated accused him of raping her. His candidacy survived many controversies over several months, including revelations of now-deleted Reddit posts and a now-covered chest tattoo resembling a Nazi sign, but the backlash to the most recent allegation proved too much for Platner to overcome.

Within a day of the report’s release, almost every major Democratic figure had pulled their endorsement of him and urged him to drop out of the race against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), seen as a top pick-up opportunity.

Platner has called for a replacement who will pick up the mantle of his progressive movement, noting he received an overwhelming majority of votes in the Democratic primary last month.

That decision will lie with the party’s delegates.

▪ The Hill: Democratic infighting roils process to replace Platner.

▪ The Hill: Actor Patrick Dempsey turns down possible Senate bid.

GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY: Trump has returned from an eventful NATO summit after making commitments on two out of three foreign policy issues that observers were watching closely.

The president announced he would allow Ukraine to co-produce air-defense Patriot missiles following a strong lobbying push from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO allies.

The announcement could be critical for Ukraine’s defenses against Russia, though it could take years to get production whirring. More than two dozen people in Ukraine were killed in the past few days in the latest strikes from Russia.

Trump also said he would remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list, which has been one of the last remaining hurdles for the country to rejoin the international community. The move came after lobbying from a bipartisan trio of lawmakers earlier this month.

Trump has enjoyed warm relations with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa over the past year and a half, in the aftermath of al-Sharaa coming to power after overthrowing former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The announcement came as Trump met with al-Sharaa at the summit.

One area where Trump stopped short of committing is on whether to approve Turkey’s push to obtain access to F-35 fighter jets. He signaled on Tuesday that he was willing to lift sanctions against Turkey that has prevented it from rejoining the fighter jet program but stopped short of pledging jets to the country.

“I haven’t totally made up my mind, but my inclination is to say, look, he’s done everything, he’s helped us in so many different ways,” Trump said of Turkish PresidentRecep Tayyip Erdoğan.

At the same time, Trump raised eyebrows with his declaration that the U.S. would cut off all trade with Spain over tensions on its defense spending and the Iran war.

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay,” the president continued. “I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits.”

▪ The Hill: Five takeaways from the NATO summit.

▪ The Hill: Trump sets up fight in Congress over Turkey sanctions.

CHECKING IN: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) sent a letter Wednesday to Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) office requesting an update on the senator’s health weeks after he was hospitalized.

Senate GOP leaders said they spoke with McConnell in the past few days by phone and expect him to return to the Senate, but that hasn’t quelled speculation about his condition. McConnell’s office hasn’t provided information about what caused his hospitalization last month or his current status other than to say he’s improving.

“Allowing speculation to continue in the media is not fair to the Senator or to Kentuckians, and my hope is that this provides him the opportunity to share the information in a transparent manner, direct from the source,” Beshear wrote in his letter. “I wish him a safe and speedy recovery.”

McConnell, who is 84 years old and is retiring from the Senate after his term ends in January, has had several health issues in recent years, including falls and freezing episodes.

▪ The Hill: Absences revive debate about lawmaker transparency.

PAY UP: A federal judge has ordered the release of $5.8 million to be paid to E. Jean Carroll from an escrow account created as Trump appealed a verdict finding he defamed her.

U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan ruled Wednesday that Carroll should receive the funds three years after a jury awarded her for damages by Trump. The ruling denies a last-minute appeal from Trump’s attorneys to pause the payment.

The case stems from Trump’s comments during his first term that Carroll’s accusations that he sexually assaulted her were a “con job” and a “hoax.” A jury determined the statements defamed Carroll and caused her professional harm.

The Supreme Court declined to hear Trump’s appeal to overturn the ruling without explanation last week.

▪ The Hill: Defense lawyers dispute DNA evidence in Charlie Kirk case.

The Los Angeles County+USC Medical Center’s patient drop-off/pick-up area is seen in Los Angeles in 2020. (Damian Dovarganes, Associated Press file)v

HEALTH INSURANCE HIKE: Millions of Americans on ObamaCare are poised to see a double-digit increase in the cost of their insurance premiums in 2027, according to a new analysis, providing fuel for Democrats’ affordability fight ahead of the midterm elections, The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel reports.

The KFF analysis of preliminary filings shows insurers proposing a median increase of 14 percent, which would mark the second straight year of double-digit premium increases.

Health insurers cite many of the same reasons for their proposed premium hikes, including a rise in healthcare costs broadly, an increase in health inflation and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits.

“When there is so much uncertainty, insurers are raising premiums higher than they otherwise would be, and the end result is that consumers are footing a larger bill for their premiums if they’re not receiving federal tax credits,” said Matthew McGough, a policy analyst at KFF for the Program on the ACA.

Republicans in Congress declined to extend the COVID-era enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025, raising costs for enrollees, which in turn has resulted in people dropping coverage and shrinking the market.

Democrats have repeatedly rebuked Republicans for letting the tax credits expire, but the latest analysis could reignite the national conversation around the cost of healthcare and create an opening for Democrats looking to attack their opponents on affordability.

“Donald Trump and his puppet [Rep.] Mike Collins, they doubled health insurance premiums for more than a million Georgians and threw 300,000 Georgians off their insurance altogether,” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) said at a recent rally, referring to the Republican opponent in his bid for reelection. “I never want to hear these two pretend they give a damn about working people again.”

▪ The Hill: Faith groups urge White House to release HIV/AIDS funding.

▪ Politico: Bitter health care fight at the center of high-stakes House race.

Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan leaves the federal courthouse after a hearing in Milwaukee on May 15, 2025. (Andy Manis, Associated Press file)

JUDGMENT TIME: Former Wisconsin judge Hannah Dugan avoided jail time Wednesday following her conviction for obstructing federal agents, instead being issued a $5,000 fine.

U.S. District Judge Lynn Adelman said Dugan’s conduct showed a lapse in judgement rather than a pattern of criminal behavior, pointing to her decades of public service and previously clean record.

Dugan, who served as a judge in the Milwaukee County Circuit Court for a decade, was found guilty in December of helping to usher a defendant from Mexico out of her courtroom to avoid U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

She was convicted on the obstruction charge but acquitted on another charge of concealing an individual from an arrest. She faced up to five years in prison.

The case received national attention amid pushback against the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration.

Dugan said in remarks addressed to the court that she didn’t intend to break the law and was trying to preserve “decorum and safety of the courtroom.” Adelman rebuffed prosectors’ push for a harsher sentence, noting that Dugan already has paid the price in resigning her judgeship, becoming a convicted felon and facing threats.

“I think this is a situation where an otherwise good person, upset by immigration policies in this country, made a bad decision in the moment,” Adelman said.

▪ The Hill: Lawmakers call for probe in ICE shooting.

▪ NewsNation: Family, advocates demand answers.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, heads to the chamber before votes on the immigration enforcement funding package, at the Capitol in Washington, June 4, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

The Maine Senate race has taken center stage in the news this week with the latest controversy surrounding Platner. While it’s unclear who will ultimately be the Democratic nominee for the seat, one thing that’s certain is they will face longtime Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in November. So this quiz will be about Collins and her political history in the Pine Tree State.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. As Morning Report will be taking the day off for Friday, the winners will receive their historic newsletter fame when we return on Monday.

Collins is the longest-serving Republican female senator and is famous for not having missed a vote in years. Roughly how many consecutive votes on the Senate floor has she participated in?

1. 4,000

2. 6,000

3. 8,000

4. 10,000

Despite representing a left-leaning state on the federal level, Collins has managed to win reelection comfortably each time. Which prospective replacement for Platner did Collins previously defeat?

1. Troy Jackson

2. Shenna Bellows

3. Nirav Shah

4. Janet Mills

Which of the following votes did Collins not buck the majority of her party on?

1. Repeal of the Affordable Care Act

2. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act

3. The impeachment of Bill Clinton

4. Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

Which Supreme Court justice did Collins cast a controversial vote in favor of shortly before they voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, despite Collins’s pro-choice stance?

1. John Roberts

2. Neil Gorsuch

3. Brett Kavanaugh

4. Amy Coney Barrett

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The thread

  1. Strait of Hormuz: Iran attacks three ships in 24 hours, U.S. says
  2. US, Iran launch more attacks as mediators urge both sides to uphold MoU
  3. US launches strikes on Iran for a second day after Trump says agreement to end the war is ‘over’